Production/Collections Trends in 2010
Many of you have been asking about how unemployment may affect your production/collection trends throughout 2010. Unemployment rates trend upwards, even after a recession is over. That’s because employers don’t usually start laying people off until well into a recession. If their businesses are struggling, they’ll first look at improving their marketing campaigns, sales, etc. Early in a recession, people don’t realize they are actually in one. After a recession is over, employers typically don’t hire people until they have had some stable growth for a while. Fifty economists from various academic and investment institutions recently predicted unemployment rates through the end of 2010 in a survey called the Blue Chip Economic Forecast®. The majority see unemployment at 9.4% at the end of 2010, but it could also be much worse—25% of responders see unemployment over 10% by the end of 2010. To grow practice production in 2010 will likely be more challenging than growing production in 2009. Since recall for most practices is every six months, most of you are just barely starting to see the affects of lay offs that have occurred during the summer months. But hey, economists have been wrong before – just stay disciplined and work hard. I only illustrate this point because many of you have yet to see a decrease in your practice collections; but that’s probably due to the fact that the effects of unemployment have not really come home to roost. As always, I would keep tight reigns on overhead expenses and personal discretionary expenses throughout 2010 and into 2011. We’ll keep an eye on unemployment rates and keep you posted on general trends. If you’re illiquid right now, it’s time to build up those cash reserves and give yourself a safety net for whatever the future may bring.
